Trustwatch 2024 retrospective on the election campaign
This briefing is comprised of two components.
- Analysis of polling conducted between Monday 1st July – Tuesday 2nd July 2024 through Focaldata, designed by Demos. Nationally representative sample of 1,000 people. Covering how people are feeling ahead of the election, media handling of the general election, the importance of a local candidate vs a strong party, and commentary on public awareness and response to AI/deepfakes.
- Insights from WhatsApp conversations with our Trustwatch panel (a panel comprising of 32 ordinary members of the public), covering voting decisions ahead of the election, events that informed this decision, and the extent to which they feel their vote will make a difference at the national and local level.
Polling analysis
Summary
Analysis of polling conducted between Monday 1st July – Tuesday 2nd July 2024 through Focaldata, designed by Demos. Nationally representative sample of 1,000 people. Covering how people are feeling ahead of the election, media handling of the general election, the importance of a local candidate vs a strong party, and commentary on public awareness and response to AI/deepfakes.
Analysis
- The majority of people are feeling informed enough to make their decision on polling day, although the general election campaign hasn’t necessarily helped them feel more informed
While 65% feel they have the information they need to make their voting decision, manifestos will help inform the voting decisions of only 46% of the public, while TV interviews and debates will inform this decision for only 39% of the public.
A minority are feeling convinced that Labour has presented a clear vision for the future (40%), and a far smaller proportion for the Conservatives (28%). A similarly small proportion are convinced that the parties will deliver on these visions, with 38% saying that if Labour won the election, they trust that it would deliver what it has set out in the campaign, and 28% saying the same for Conservatives.
Even among those planning to vote for these parties, not all are convinced that they will deliver, with 68% of predicted Labour voters trusting Labour to deliver on what it has set out, and 70% of predicted Conservative voters saying the same for the Conservatives.
For reference, here is the exact wording used in the survey for the above statements:
- I have all the information I need to make my voting decision on polling day (4th July)
- The party manifestos will help inform my voting decision on polling day (4th July)
- The Labour Party has presented a clear vision for the future
- TV interviews and debates will help inform my voting decision on polling day (4th July)
- I trust that if Labour win the election, they will deliver on what they have set out during the campaign
- I trust that if the Conservatives win the election, they will deliver on what they have set out during the campaign
- The Conservative Party has presented a clear vision for the future
- A quarter of the public have avoided talking about politics because they don’t feel they understand it well enough
Gen-Z and Millenials were more likely than Gen-X and Boomers to say they have avoided talking about politics because they feel they don’t understand it well enough. 41% of Gen-Z and 35% of Millenial respondents agreed with the statement, compared to 25% of Gen X and 13% of Boomers.
- Views are mixed on how well the media has handled the general election campaign so far, in terms of holding politicians to account, and doing so fairly, and focusing on the stories that matter to ordinary people
See chart below.
- The public say they are slightly more likely to vote for a candidate that understands their local constituency than one from the party they support more
We asked respondents to imagine there were only two candidates standing in their constituency:
- Candidate A appears to have a strong understanding of the challenges facing the local constituency. However, they represent a party that you have a less favourable view of.
- Candidate B appears to have a weak understanding of the challenges facing the local constituency. However, they represent a party that you have a more favourable view of.
The public were reasonably split between the candidates, but slightly more likely to vote for (and feel more strongly about this) the candidate with a strong understanding of the local constituency (41%) than the candidate from the party they have a more favourable view of (35%).
- One in every nine people have both heard of the betting scandal and say it has changed how they’re planning to vote, while one in every 10 say it makes them less likely to vote
Three-quarters of the public had heard of the betting scandal. Of those who had heard of the betting scandal, many reported significant damage to their trust as a result (see chart below). Four in five say the betting scandal suggests that politicians are in it for themselves, while over half say they trust politicians in general less because of it. Looking at the split across the parties, over half of those who had heard of the scandal say it has made them trust Conservative politicians less – 20 percentage points more than those saying it has made them trust Labour politicians less. People are also slightly less likely to say Rishi Sunak handled the allegations well when compared with Kier Starmer (30% vs 38%), but are twice as likely to say Sunak handled the allegations badly (44% vs 22%).
A significant proportion of those who have heard about the scandal also say it has impacted their voting behaviour. Of the 75% of people who heard about it, one in every six say the betting scandal has changed how they’re planning to vote, while one in every seven say it makes them less likely to vote. Across the population, this means one in every nine people have both heard of the betting scandal and say it has changed how they’re planning to vote. Similarly, one in every 10 have both heard of the scandal and say it makes them less likely to vote.
Please note that the chart below is data for those who had heard of the betting scandal
- A quarter of the public think they have knowingly encountered generative AI or deepfake content during the general election campaign, and only three in ten feel confident knowing how to spot it
We provided respondents with an explanation of generative AI and deepfakes, and then asked a series of questions relating to this.
Despite a minority of respondents having knowingly encountered this content, there was serious concern about its impact on the political information they consume (63% concerned), and a significant majority (62%) are also less trusting of online media content as a result of generative AI / deepfakes.
Interestingly, people are much more concerned about the impact of generative AI / deepfakes on other people’s political opinions (68% concerned) than their own (48%).
However, there is little trust in traditional media (44%), social media platforms (30%), and politicians (28%) to handle generative AI / deepfakes well.
For reference, here is the exact wording used in the survey for the above statements:
- I am concerned about generative AI or deepfakes influencing other people’s opinions about politicians or their political views
- I am concerned about generative AI or deepfakes shaping the political information I consume
- The existence of generative AI and deepfakes has reduced my trust in online media content
- I am concerned about generative AI or deepfakes influencing my opinions about politicians or my political views
- I trust traditional media to identify and appropriately handle political generative AI or deepfake content
- The existence of generative AI and deepfakes has influenced where I look for my news and political information (e.g. on news sites, news programs, social media, radio)
- I am confident I would know how to spot generative AI and deepfakes
- I trust social media platforms to identify and appropriately handle generative AI or deepfake content
- I trust politicians to use generative AI or deepfakes responsibly (e.g. not using deepfakes to deceive voters)
- I have knowingly encountered political content (e.g. articles, videos) that was produced by generative AI, including deepfakes
Whatsapp questions
Summary
Insights from WhatsApp conversations with our Trustwatch panel (a panel comprising of 32 ordinary members of the public), covering voting decisions ahead of the election, events that informed this decision, and the extent to which they feel their vote will make a difference at the national and local level.
On 2nd July, we asked our panellists a series of four questions:
- How they’ve decided how to vote (if at all) in this election, when they made this decision (and if not, when they think they’ll make this decision)
- Whether they’ve changed their mind over the course of the election campaign and, if so, why? Have there been any moments that ‘sealed the deal’ for them in terms of how they will be voting?
- Do they think their vote will make a difference at the local level? Why?
- Do they think their vote will make a difference at the national level? Why?
What follows is our analysis, with some verbatim quotes from WhatsApp messages.
Analysis
- Have people decided how to vote (if at all) in this election? And if so, when did they decide?
Most people had decided to vote, but many had only recently decided how to vote
2019 Conservative voter
Yes I have decided how to vote. I made this decision last week.
2019 Conservative voter
I have decided how to vote. I only made my mind up recently [voted already by post]
2019 Labour voter
Yes I’ve decided and had decided before the election date had been announced.
2019 SNP voter
Yeah I’ve decided, I thought I’d be voting them anyway but a little more set on my decision since this past week
One specifically said that had decided when the betting controversy arose
2019 SNP voter
I have decided. When the betting controversy arose.
Another specifically said that had decided after watching the TV debate
2019 Conservative voter
I have decided to vote after watching Sunak and Starmear live political debate. This country needs a leader can take it forward and not backwards.
Some people’s vote was decided based on tactical reasons
2019 Labour voter
Yes, I will be voting Labour. In theory I decided that a long time ago but I wanted to vote tactically if another party could have beaten the Conservatives in my seat. The polling is showing that Labour can win my seat so that solidified my choice.
Some others say they had decided who to vote for long before the election
2019 Conservative voter
Decided & we have voted by post. In nearly 60 years I have voted the same way & will continue to do so. Better the Devil you know!
2019 Labour voter
Yes I’ve decided and had decided before the election date had been announced.
Some said they are yet to decide, including one who plans to decide on the day
Panellist
I haven’t decided yet, if I will vote and who I would vote for. A conversation today at the office pushed me further towards voting.
2019 Conservative voter
Yes I have decided 75% of which party I’ll be voting for in this election. I made the decision in the past 2 weeks. But there is still 25% leanway before the election.
- Have people changed their mind over the course of the election campaign and, if so, why?
Some participant suggest they have stuck to their party allegiances, while also accepting a Labour victory
2019 Conservative Voter
I have been a Tory for a number of years and I’m supporting a dead horse now. Labour will have the super majority
2019 Conservative voter
Frankly I don’t trust Starmer who for years was a confirmed Corbynista & I thus await a Left Wing takeover of his moderate Labour. It will not take too long!
Two participants in Scotland suggested they had not changed their mind at all, with one explaining that the decision in simpler in Scotland
2019 SNP voter
Not really, being in Scotland it’s a little less confusing to know who to vote for
2019 SNP voter
No, it was always going to be SNP
The betting scandal weighed heavily on some panellists’ minds, with one saying it was the last straw for them.
2019 Conservative voter
Yes I have changed my mind over the course of the campaign. What did it for me was the betting scandal (…) Was the last straw for me
2019 SNP voter
No I didn’t change my mind. I did have a good think about reasons why during the campaign before deciding. Once decided that was it. If anything it would have been the betting.
One participant emphasised that a video of a party being racist changed their mind
2019 Conservative voter
yes I changed my mind in the last 2 weeks in light of the recent videos I’ve seen on social media circulating regarding a particular party and how they were being racist towards a certain ethnicity.
Some cited particular policies as making up their mind in terms who they won’t be voting for
Panellist
Not really my choices have relatively stayed the same. The only change is eliminating my vote for greens – couple of worrying stance on women’s rights around maternity and too much spending
Non-Voter
I haven’t changed my mind at all. Having a clearer understanding of what the parties manifesto was, is likely what sealed the deal in who I won’t be voting for
Several suggest they are still looking for information to make up their mind
Panellist
I haven’t changed my mind as it was never made up. I listened to a Jonathan pie podcast which made me feel guilty about not voting so that pushed me towards finding out more information
2019 Conservative voter
However, I’m still waiting and keep thinking to see if I am making the right choice.
Some emphasised that they had either become more pessimistic through the campaign, or had their pessimism confirmed
Non-Voter
Yes [I have changed my mind]. It’s more dyer than I can imagine. Keir is worse than Rishi. No charism
2019 Conservative voter
I have changed my perspective, as I don’t think at the moment any party will do a good job. As they have to pick up the mess of the past few years. There weren’t moments when I said, that’s it’ – I sealed the deal unfortunately.
Non-Voter
not really -I had no views on policy’s as they were not clear voting locally now rather than on national- labours fair shake nonsense was far too vague ? What do they stand for?
- Do people think their vote will make a difference at the local level?
Many feel their vote won’t make a difference at the local level given they live in a safe seat
Non-Voter
No. I think it’s already decided who will win
2019 SNP voter
No – as this constituency has been SNP faithful for a long time now, so I expect no change
2019 Conservative Voter
my vote won’t make a difference at local level. The reason being is my area has never been conservative and for decades it’s been labour
2019 Conservative voter
My vote won’t make any difference at all (…) The constituency has always been Labour.
Others expressed how their vote will make a difference because they live in a marginal seat, including some who expect historic changes in party representation if the Conservatives get very few seats
Panellist
Yes. I hear it will be close.
2019 Labour voter
Yes. This has been a safe Tory seat for a very long time. To change that will be fantastic and my vote will have contributed to that.
2019 SNP voter
I do think it will. My constituency could go 1 of 3 ways so votes will actually count.
2019 Labour voter
yes, there are a lot of labour signs up around the town, previously been more conservative or Lib Dem. People want a change and our local labour leader is very active in the community
Others spoke specifically about the impact on local issues, including transport, council spending, and local ethnic relations.
2019 Conservative voter
At local level, we will be seeing the faces that we elected. We have noise,pollution,cogestion on tiny local roads etc etc.So it got to be the right person who can tackle these issues.
Panellist
I hope so, but really difficult to tell. Councils are so cash strapped that any changes will be small I imagine
Panellist
yes, based on recent videos circulating my vote will definitely make a difference at the local level as the comments made by that political party is affecting a particular ethnic minority who make up most of the population in my local area. Everyone is angry as the large majority of people in my local area are from that ethnic background. Many members of that party have also resigned from that party im the last week as a result of the comments as they are of that ethnic background and they feel it would be hypocritical to stand for a party that looks down on them.
One cited engagement from their local MP as a reason why they trust their local vote would make a difference
2019 SNP voter
Yeah a little, because I’ve had letters from the local MP who takes surveys from the area and tries to work on the issues raised
- Do people think their vote will make a difference at the national level?
Some participants expressed worry that their vote won’t make a difference if the next government fails to deliver on their promises
2019 Labour voter
All I can do is hope my vote makes a difference I hope that the party gets elected and makes a change but it’s if they keep to there word and decide to help x (…) I do vote in hopes to make a difference but it’s hard for me to trust any party as they seem to make follow there own agenda I’m hoping though someone will actually follow through on there promises and make life a little better for everyone
Non-Voter
I’m not sure, I can see who will be voting for a particular party. But I learnt from Brexit you don’t know what people will actually vote for within the polling stations. Regardless of what the media says
Some felt that the expected landslide change in government and MPs meant their vote was helping drive a big change
2019 Labour voter
Yes. I’m helping to overturn a safe Tory seat and will be contributing to a welcome change of government. I’ve spent a lot of my life in safe Conservative seats so my vote has rarely held much value.
2019 Labour voter
I really hope so, I think people are fed up with the conservatives and want a change!
Others felt that the expected landslide change in government and MPs meant their vote would make no difference to the outcome
Non-Voter
absolutely no difference. Again it’s already a done deal.
2019 Conservative Voter
All the polls clearly show that labour will wing by supermajority . People want change and the tories haven’t been great. Even starmer has already said ‘judge me in a few years. People have lost trust and hope with the tories
2019 SNP voter
I’m not sure. Seems that regardless of what happens in Scotland Labour will be able to win. I’m taking this from polls.
Others felt their vote makes a difference simply because voting is an important part of democracy and participation
2019 Conservative voter
Casting votes can have a huge impact, so it is a crucial moment . I don’t want to wake up every morning in the next five years, just looking back and regretting if I made the wrong choices!
2019 Conservative voter
We do need change and I’m rather use my right to vote then let it lapse. However, I don’t know what happens in the background. I put my trust in democracy when I say I hope my vote will matter on both local and national level.
Panellists in Scotland had specific view about the changing role of Scotland
2019 SNP voter
Yes, because Scotland will now feel in a stronger position / represented better should the Tories no longer lead from Westminster 🙏🏻
2019 SNP voter
Not at all, UK politics and the politicians in parliament aren’t interested in Scotland whatsoever unless it’s regarding their own financial interest or benefit
Some hoped that specific voting dynamics (e.g. changed from one party to another) would make a difference by sending a political message
2019 Conservative voter
I am not sure if vote will make a difference nationally. I’d like to think so especially in light of recent events, Britain is a multi racial country so people all over the country of that ethnicity are angry so may change their vote now away from that Party.
2019 Conservative voter
My vote will make no difference nationally, however those not voting; SNP losses & Reform & Lib Dem gains will make a big difference. I go for a Hung Parliament!
One participant cited the voting system as a reason why their vote wouldn’t make a difference
Non-Voter
no (…) voting system is broken