Trustwatch 2024: polling on trust

Findings and commentary

1. Around half of the public (54%) feel that the general election campaigns represents people like them, especially those who plan to vote for the main parties, but concern remains from a significant proportion of the public about the state of our democracy.

While 54% of the public feel that the general election campaign represents their concerns, those most likely to agree with this statement plan to vote for one of the two main parties – Conservative (64% agree) or Labour (68% agree). In contrast, a third (34%) of predicted Reform votes don’t feel represented by the election campaign.

A third (34%) disagree that the UK is a well-functioning democracy, with responses again differing strongly along party lines. Predicted Conservative voters are least likely to disagree with this statement (11%), while half of predicted Reform voters (52%) don’t believe the UK is a well-functioning democracy.

2. Reported engagement with the election is high, with only 12% saying they have not engaged in any of the ways listed, but more in-depth engagement is limited.

Half of the public say they have discussed the election with friends and family (53%) or read national news about it (50%), and a significant proportion say that they watched the TV debates (43%) – though this may include those who have watched just one debate or who have watched clips from debates. As covered in previous Trustwatch briefings, our panellists had strong views about both the format of the debates and the conduct of party leaders, and what this meant for their trust in elections and in politics more generally.

A significantly smaller proportion engaged in more depth, such as looking into the policies of different parties (35%) or reading manifestos (27%). We covered the launch of manifestos and their influence on political trust through our Trustwatch panel – briefing here.

3. There is a lack of trust in politicians to level with the public about the challenges and limitations the next government will face but Keir Starmer and Labour MPs are more likely to inspire trust on this than Rishi Sunak and Conservative MPs.

No politicians are trusted by the majority of the public to be honest about the challenges and limitations the next government will face, but Rishi Sunak and Conservative MPs face particularly strong distrust, with more than half of the public lacking trust in either on this measure (56% for Rishi Sunak, 55% for Conservative MPs). Distrust is lower, although still reasonably high, for Keir Starmer (40%) and Labour MPs (37%).

Almost half of the public (46%) do not trust Nigel Farage either to be honest about the challenges and limitations the next government will face, but his supporters, those planning to vote Reform, have the most trust in their party’s leader on this. 86% of predicted Reform voters trust Nigel Farage to be honest about this, compared to 72% of predicted Labour voters for Keir Starmer, and 67% of predicted Conservative voters for Rishi Sunak.

Trust in Keir Starmer to level with the public on this differs by generation more so than for the other leaders, with younger people more likely to trust him to do so than older people.

4. There is concern about Rishi Sunak and Nigel Farage lying during the election campaign from around half of the public, and from around four in ten for Keir Starmer.

Across the board, there were low levels of trust in people/organisations not to lie during the general election campaign. Local and national news sources came out of this better than others but even so, fewer than half of the public trust these sources (47% for local news, 44% for national news).

Strikingly, around half said they do not trust Rishi Sunak (54%) or Nigel Farage (48%) not to lie during the campaign, while four in ten (39%) said the same for Keir Starmer.

5. To build public trust ahead of the general election, people want a balance between ambition and realism.

In our Trustwatch 2024 panel, participants explored the challenging tensions and trade-offs that politicians face during election campaigns as they try to build public trust. For instance, the Trustwatch panel would like to see politicians present a positive vision for the future but also level with the public about the challenges they would face in government. In our polling, we put two of these tensions to our nationally representative sample of the public.

In our latest survey, we explained that to build up public trust ahead of the general election, political parties might offer ‘an ambitious vision for change, which they are less likely to deliver’ or ‘a limited vision for change, which they are more likely to deliver’, and asked people to place themselves on a sliding scale to indicate their preferred balance.

On this 0-100 scale, the average answer was 59.9, meaning there is generally some inclination towards ‘a limited vision for change, which they are more likely to deliver’, more than ‘an ambitious vision for change, which they are less likely to deliver’.

6. The public prize serious engagement with issues over charisma but there are some notable inter-generational differences

We also explained that to build up public trust ahead of the general election, political leaders can focus on being ‘charismatic and personable’ and ‘serious and concerned with the issues’, and asked people to place themselves on a sliding scale to indicate their preferred balance.

On this 0-100 scale, the average answer was 68.3, meaning there is even more of an inclination towards political leaders focusing on being ‘serious and concerned with the issues’ than ‘charismatic and personable’. 

Interestingly, averages varied here by generation. Gen-Z (18-27 year-old) respondents had a mean average of 61.2, versus 74.6 for Boomers, suggesting Boomers place more of a premium on political leaders that are ‘serious and concerned with the issues’ than those in Gen-Z.

7. The election campaign has done little to increase trust in politics and/or politicians, and in particular, Rishi Sunak’s statements and actions have had the most detrimental impact on trust, notably among Reform voters

Over half (55%) of the public said Rishi Sunak leaving D-day commemorations early decreased their trust in politics and/or politicians, including 72% of those who are planning to vote for Reform, and 55% of those who are undecided. Gen X and Boomers were much more likely to have lost trust over this incident than Gen Z and Millennials.

There is scepticism about Rishi Sunak’s statements too – Sunak talking about going without Sky TV as a child decreased trust for 49% of the public and his claim that Labour would increase taxes by £2,000 for each household decreased trust for 40% of the public. The Conservative manifesto was little help, increasing trust for only 17% of the public, and decreasing trust for almost four in ten (39%).

In contrast, few events or incidents have increased trust over the course of the campaign, but the Labour manifesto had the biggest positive impact on trust (increasing trust for 30% of the public), and Nigel Farage becoming leader of Reform UK the second biggest (increasing trust for 26%). 

However, Farage’s positive impacts on trust are somewhat offset by an even higher proportion of the public (39%) saying that him becoming leader of Reform decreased their trust in politics and/or politicians, including 48% of Boomers (those aged 60+). There was a significant difference between men and women’s views on this, with 30% of men saying their trust increased, compared to 21% of women.

We also asked about Ed Davey’s appearances in theme parks, doing water sports, and playing the drums, which increased trust for half the proportion of the public that it decreased trust for (14% vs 31%). But there was potentially lack of awareness around this, with a higher proportion (36%) saying it neither increased nor decreased their trust, and 12% saying they hadn’t heard about it.

Polly Curtis, Demos Chief Executive, said:

“Trust has emerged as the defining story of this campaign. You hear interviewers pleading with politicians to be frank with voters about the sale of the challenges facing us. You see it in the furious row over the parties’ spending plans. This is the context in which this election is taking place: one in which trust in politics is at crisis point”

“Through our Trustwatch 2024 panel, we are engaging ordinary citizens during the campaign’s most significant moments to understand how we can fix political trust. What’s clear is that they recognise tensions politicians must balance between ambition and realism.

“In putting these tensions to members of the public, our polling has identified how we might begin restoring trust. Voters don’t want to be promised the world only to see their government ultimately fall short. They want a balance between a realistic vision and an ambitious one, one which generally prizes competence over charisma”

Methodology:

• Weighted nationally representative UK sample of 1,000 people
• Focaldata – members of the British Polling Council
• Polling conducted on 19th June 2024
• Various cross-breaks, allowing us to look at patterns by generation, voting history/intention, geography, and other factors