You know something they don't know
I’m enjoying the new Politicshome – it’s found a niche in providing cross-party, up the minute information à la Bloomberg. What i’m not so sure about is the feature of the website that seems to be getting all the attention – the PH100 polls that are done. (e.g. who will be the next mayor)
According to the website, the Phi100 panel is an expert panel of over 100 of the top political brains in the UK. It includes senior members of the government and some of the biggest names in political journalism. There’s a basic wisdom of crowds issue here: the best aggregated predictions come from groups where people make independent decisions and where people bring different information to answer a question.
So, for all the talented people involved, isn’t there the danger of group-think in the PH100? How much different information does each panellist bring? And how much have they all discussed the answer already, or read each other's columns? I don’t know the answer, but for the moment i’ll be sticking with who the public thinks is going to win rather than with the experts.