Next year, the number of over-65s will outnumber the number of under-16s. Moreover, there will be a rise in the ‘oldest old’ – those aged over 85.  An aging population throws up a host of challenges for future governments. Over 65s are roughly twice as likely to vote as those aged 18-24 so form a powerful voting block. But they will not be all powerful. This may be a recipe for conflict with younger groups of voters on whom they will depend for long-term support and care.

Last night, the Open Left project at Demos launched the first report of its ‘Open Coalitions’ strand, examining both the demographic and attitudinal changes of the British electorate. We argue that political strategies for the centre-Left can no longer segment the electorate into ‘core’ and ‘median’ voters and that there are other axes on along which voters are divided beyond simply left and right. And the challenges posed by an ageing electorate do not fit into the neat left-right universe.

Evidence shows that older voters are more likely to put healthcare before education. Amongst 18-34 year olds, 31 per cent say education is their highest spending priority and 40 per cent prioritise health. By contrast, amongst the over 55s, only 19 per cent prioritise education and 50 per cent say health is their first concern.

With such divided interests, the distribution of financial responsibility – where beneficiaries are potentially separate from those on whom the burden will fall – will be key. David Willetts book 'Pinch' highlights intergenerational conflict and details the advantages that the post-war generation enjoyed, relative to those reaching adulthood today – especially in housing, education and pensions. These questions will remain important in the years to come for both the centre-Left and centre-Right.

Building consensus and constructing majorities becomes a challenging enterprise in the context of an electorate that is fragmenting demographically and polarising in terms of its attitudes – the key findings of the report. Clever political positioning, responding to where a party thinks the electorate’s opinion falls based on media impressions, opinion polls, or just pure guesswork is insufficient. Instead, the report suggests a different political strategy – one that constructs consensus and coalitions through active engagement with public concerns routed in enduring values.

The choice is not between values and electoral success. Rather it is between whether the left’s values meet the needs and expectations of modern Britain or whether they do not. 

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